President Donald Trump signed an executive order Wednesday to impose his threatened 50% tariffs on Brazil, setting a legal rationale that Brazil’s policies and criminal prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro constitute an economic emergency under a 1977 law.

Trump had threatened the tariffs July 9 in a letter to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. But the legal basis of that threat was an earlier executive order premised on trade imbalances being a threat to the U.S. economy. But America ran a $6.8 billion trade surplus last year with Brazil, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

A statement by the White House said Brazil’s judiciary had tried to coerce social media companies and block their users, though it did not name the companies involved, X and Rumble.

Trump appears to identify with Bolsonaro, who attempted to overturn the results of his 2022 loss to Lula. Similarly, Trump was indicted in 2023 for his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

Lula left an event about animal rights early on Wednesday after Trump’s move, saying he needed to defend “the sovereignty of the Brazilian people in light of the measures announced by the President of the United States.”

The order would apply an additional 40% tariff on the baseline 10% tariff already being levied by Trump. But not all goods imported from Brazil would face the 40% tariff: Civil aircraft and parts, aluminum, tin, wood pulp, energy products and fertilizers are among the products being excluded.

The order said the tariffs would go into effect seven days after its signing on Wednesday.

Also Wednesday, Trump’s Treasury Department announced sanctions on Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes over alleged suppression of freedom of expression and Bolsonaro’s ongoing trial.

De Moraes oversees the criminal case against Bolsonaro, who is accused of masterminding a plot to stay in power despite his 2022 defeat.

On July 18, the State Department announced visa restrictions on Brazilian judicial officials, including de Moraes.

The United States and China have agreed to work on extending a deadline for new tariffs on each other after two days of trade talks in Stockholm concluded on Tuesday, according to Beijing’s lead negotiator.

The U.S. side says the extension was discussed, but not decided.

China said the two sides had “in-depth, candid and constructive” discussions and agreed to work on extending a pause in tariffs beyond an Aug. 12 deadline for a trade deal for another 90 days.

“A stable, healthy and sustainable China-U.S. economic and trade relationship serves not only the two countries’ respective development goals but also contributes to global economic growth and stability,” said China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng, who led the Chinese side, according to a statement from China’s Ministry of Commerce. He did not say how the extension would work.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the talks as a “very fulsome two days with the Chinese delegation.”

He said they touched on U.S. concerns over China’s purchase of Iranian oil, supplying Russia with dual-use tech that could be used on the battlefield, and manufacturing goods at a rate beyond what is sustained by global demand.

“We just need to de-risk with certain, strategic industries, whether it’s the rare earths, semiconductors, medicines, and we talked about what we could do together to get into balance within the relationship,” Bessent said.

He stressed that the U.S. seeks to restore domestic manufacturing, secure purchase agreements of U.S. agricultural and energy products, and reduce trade deficits.

Meeting in the Swedish capital

The latest round of talks opened Monday in Stockholm to try to break a logjam over tariffs that have skewed the pivotal commercial ties between the world’s two largest economies.

The two sides previously met in Geneva and London to address specific issues — triple-digit tariffs that amounted to a trade embargo and export controls on critical products — China’s chokehold on rare earth magnets, and U.S. restrictions on semiconductors.

Monday’s discussions lasted nearly five hours behind closed doors at the office of Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. Before the talks resumed Tuesday, Kristersson met with Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer over breakfast.

The talks in Stockholm unfolded as President Donald Trump is mulling plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, a summit that could be a crucial step toward locking in any major agreements between their two countries.

“I would say before the end of the year,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Tuesday.

On his Truth Social media platform, Trump insisted late Monday that he was not “seeking” a summit with Xi, but may go to China at the Chinese leader’s invitation, “which has been extended. Otherwise, no interest!”

Bessent told reporters the summit was not discussed in Stockholm but that they did talk about “the desire of the two presidents for the trade team and the Treasury team to have trade negotiations with our Chinese counterparts.”

Greer said the American team would head back to Washington and “talk to the president about” the extension of the August deadline and see “whether that’s something that he wants to do.”

The U.S. has struck deals over tariffs with some of its key trading partners — including Britain, Japan and the European Union — since Trump announced earlier in July elevated tariff rates against dozens of countries. China remains perhaps the biggest challenge.

“The Chinese have been very pragmatic,” Greer said in comments posted on social media by his office late Monday. “We have tensions now, but the fact that we are regularly meeting with them to address these issues gives us a good footing for these negotiations.”

Many analysts had expected that the Stockholm talks would result in an extension of current tariff levels, which are far lower than the triple-digit percentage rates proposed as the U.S.-China tariff tiff reached a crescendo in April, sending world markets into a temporary tailspin.

The two sides backed off the brink during bilateral talks in Geneva in May and agreed to a 90-day pause — which ends Aug. 12 — of those sky-high levels. They currently stand at U.S. tariffs of 30% on Chinese goods, and China’s 10% tariff on U.S. products.

While China has offered few specifics of its goals in the Stockholm talks, Bessent has suggested that the situation has stabilized to the point that Beijing and Washington can start looking toward longer-term balance between their economies.

Since China vaulted into the global trading system more than two decades ago, Washington has sought to press Beijing to encourage more consumption at home and offer greater market access to foreign, including American-made goods.

Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. trade negotiator and now vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said Trump’s team would today face challenges from “a large and confident partner that is more than willing to retaliate against U.S. interests.”

Rollover of tariff rates “should be the easy part,” she said, warning that Beijing has learned lessons since the first Trump administration and “will not buy into a one-sided deal this time around.”

Bessent said the “overall tone of the meetings was very constructive” while Li said the two sides agreed in Stockholm to keep close contact and to “communicate with each other in a timely manner on trade and economic issues.”

On Monday, police cordoned off a security zone along Stockholm’s vast waterfront as rubbernecking tourists and locals sought a glimpse of the top-tier officials through a phalanx of TV news cameras lined up behind metal barriers.

Flagpoles at the prime minister’s office were festooned with the American and Chinese flags.

President Donald Trump announced a trade framework with Japan on Tuesday, placing a 15% tax on goods imported from that nation.

“This Deal will create Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs — There has never been anything like it,” Trump posted on Truth Social, adding that the United States “will continue to always have a great relationship with the Country of Japan.”

The president said Japan would invest “at my direction” $550 billion into the U.S. and would “open” its economy to American autos and rice. The 15% tax on imported Japanese goods is a meaningful drop from the 25% rate that Trump, in a recent letter to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, said would be levied starting Aug. 1.

Early Wednesday, Ishiba acknowledged the new trade agreement, saying it would benefit both sides and help them work together.

With the announcement, Trump is seeking to tout his ability as a dealmaker — even as his tariffs, when initially announced in early April led to a market panic and fears of slower growth that for the moment appear to have subsided. Key details remained unclear from his post, such as whether Japanese-built autos would face a higher 25% tariff that Trump imposed on the sector.

But the framework fits a growing pattern for Trump, who is eager to portray the tariffs as win for the U.S. His administration says the revenues will help reduce the budget deficit and more factories will relocate to America to avoid the import taxes and cause trade imbalances to disappear.

The wave of tariffs continues to be a source of uncertainty about whether it could lead to higher prices for consumers and businesses if companies simply pass along the costs. The problem was seen sharply Tuesday after General Motors reported a 35% drop in its net income during the second quarter as it warned that tariffs would hit its business in the months ahead, causing its stock to tumble.

As the Aug. 1 deadline for the tariff rates in his letters to world leaders is approaching, Trump also announced a trade framework with the Philippines that would impose a tariff of 19% on its goods, while American-made products would face no import taxes. The president also reaffirmed his 19% tariffs on Indonesia.

The U.S. ran a $69.4 billion trade imbalance on goods with Japan last year, according to the Census Bureau.

America had a trade imbalance of $17.9 billion with Indonesia and an imbalance of $4.9 billion with the Philippines. Both nations are less affluent than the U.S. and an imbalance means America imports more from those countries than it exports to them.

The president is set to impose the broad tariffs listed in his recent letters to other world leaders on Aug. 1, raising questions of whether there will be any breakthrough in talks with the European Union. At a Tuesday dinner, Trump said the EU would be in Washington on Wednesday for trade talks.

“We have Europe coming in tomorrow, the next day,” Trump told guests.

The president earlier this month sent a letter threatening the 27 member states in the EU with 30% taxes on their goods to be imposed starting on Aug. 1.

The Trump administration has a separate negotiating period with China that is currently set to run through Aug. 12 as goods from that nation are taxed at an additional 30% baseline.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he would be in the Swedish capital of Stockholm next Monday and Tuesday to meet with his Chinese counterparts. Bessent said his goal is to shift the American economy away from consumption and to enable more consumer spending in the manufacturing-heavy Chinese economy.

“President Trump is remaking the U.S. into a manufacturing economy,” Bessent said on the Fox Business Network show “Mornings with Maria.” “If we could do that together, we do more manufacturing, they do more consumption. That would be a home run for the global economy.”

President Donald Trump said in a letter that he will raise taxes on many imported goods from Canada to 35%, deepening a rift between two North American countries that have suffered a debilitating blow to their decades-old alliance.

The Thursday letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is an aggressive increase to the top 25% tariff rates that Trump first imposed in March after months of threats. Trump’s tariffs were allegedly in an effort to get Canada to crack down on fentanyl smuggling despite the relatively modest trafficking in the drug from that country. Trump has also expressed frustration with a trade deficit with Canada that largely reflects oil purchases by America.

“I must mention that the flow of Fentanyl is hardly the only challenge we have with Canada, which has many Tariff, and Non-Tariff, Policies and Trade Barriers,” Trump wrote in the letter.

The higher rates would go into effect Aug. 1, creating a tense series of weeks ahead for the global economy as recent gains in the S&P 500 stock index suggest many investors think Trump will ultimately back down on the increases. But stock market futures were down early Friday in a sign that Trump’s wave of tariff letters may be starting to generate concern among investors.

In a social media post, Carney said Canada would continue to work toward a new trade framework with the U.S. and has made “vital progress to stop the scourge of fentanyl.”

“Through the current trade negotiations with the United States, the Canadian government has steadfastly defended our workers and business,” Carney said.

While multiple countries have received tariff letters this week, Canada — America’s second largest trading partner after Mexico — has become something of a foil to Trump. It has imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods and pushed back on the president’s taunts of making Canada the 51st state. Mexico has also faced 25% tariffs because of fentanyl, yet it has not faced the same public pressure from the Republican U.S. president.

Carney was elected prime minister in April on the argument that Canadians should keep their “elbows up.” He has responded by distancing Canada from its intertwined relationship with the U.S., seeking to strengthen its links with the European Union and the United Kingdom.

Hours before Trump’s letter, Carney posted on X a picture of himself with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, saying, “In the face of global trade challenges, the world is turning to reliable economic partners like Canada.” Implied in his statement was that the U.S. has become unreliable because of Trump’s haphazard tariff regime, which has gone through aggressive threats and reversals.

When Carney went to the White House in May, the public portion of their meeting was cordial. But Trump said there was nothing the Canadian leader could tell him to remove the tariffs, saying, “Just the way it is.”

Daniel Beland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, said Trump’s latest move will make it more difficult for Canada and the U.S. to reach a trade deal, Beland said.

“It doesn’t mean a new trade deal between Canada and the United States is impossible, but it shows how hard it is for the Canadian government to negotiate with a U.S. president who regularly utters threats and doesn’t appear to be a reliable and truthful interlocutor,” he said.

Trump has sent a series of tariff letters to 23 countries. Those form letters became increasingly personal with Canada as well as a Wednesday note that put a 50% tariff on Brazil for the ongoing trial of its former President Jair Bolsonaro for trying to stay in office after his 2022 election loss. Trump was similarly indicted for his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss to Democrat Joe Biden.

Trump administration officials have said that Trump was seeking to isolate its geopolitical rival China with the tariffs, but the latest tariffs have undermined that message. Brazil’s largest trading partner is China, not the U.S., and Chinese government officials have framed his import taxes as a form of bullying.

“Sovereign equality and non-interference in internal affairs are important principles of the U.N. Charter and basic norms governing international relations,” said Mao Ning, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman. “Tariffs should not be used as a tool for coercion, bullying and interference in the internal affairs of other countries.”

The letters reflect the inability of Trump to finalize the dozens of trade frameworks that he claimed would be easy to negotiate. Shortly after unveiling his April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs, a financial market selloff caused Trump to announce a 90-day negotiating period during which a 10% baseline tariff would be charged on most imported goods.

But Trump has indicated that the 10% tariff rates are largely disappearing as he resets the rates with his letters. “We’re just going to say all of the remaining countries are going to pay, whether it’s 20% or 15%,” Trump said in a phone interview with NBC News.

Trump has announced trade frameworks with the U.K. and Vietnam, as well as a separate deal with China to enable continued trade talks. Trump jacked up import taxes on Chinese goods to as much as 145%, but after talks he has said China faces total tariffs of 55%.

In June, Trump said he was suspending trade talks with Canada over its plans to continue its digital services tax, which would hit U.S. technology companies. A few days later, talks resumed when Carney rescinded the tax.

Under the current tariff structure, the 2020 United States Mexico Canada Agreement has protected eligible goods from Trump’s tariffs. But a review of the pact is scheduled for 2026.

President Donald Trump will sign an executive order this week to extend a deadline for TikTok’s Chinese owner to divest the popular video sharing app, the White House announced Tuesday.

Trump had signed an order in early April to keep TikTok running for an additional 75 days after a potential deal to sell the app to American owners was put on ice.

“As he has said many times, President Trump does not want TikTok to go dark,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. “This extension will last 90 days, which the Administration will spend working to ensure this deal is closed so that the American people can continue to use TikTok with the assurance that their data is safe and secure.”

Trump had told reporters aboard Air Force One as he flew back to Washington early Tuesday from the Group of Seven summit in Canada that he “probably” would extend the deadline again.

Trump also said he thinks Chinese President Xi Jinping will “ultimately approve” a deal to divest TikTok’s business in the United States.

It will be the third time Trump has extended the deadline.

The first one was through an executive order on Jan. 20, his first day in office, after the platform went dark briefly when the ban approved by Congress — and upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court — took effect.

The second was in April, when White House officials believed they were nearing a deal to spin off TikTok into a new company with U.S. ownership that fell apart after China backed out following Trump’s tariff announcement.

It is not clear how many times Trump can — or will — keep extending the ban as the government continues to try to negotiate a deal for TikTok, which is owned by China’s ByteDance. Trump has amassed more than 15 million followers on TikTok since he joined last year, and he has credited the trendsetting platform with helping him gain traction among young voters. He said in January that he has a “warm spot for TikTok.”

U.S. President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Monday that they had signed a trade deal that will slash tariffs on U.K. auto and aerospace industry imports — but they are still discussing how to handle steel production.

The pair spoke to reporters at the Group of Seven summit in the Canadian Rockies, with Trump brandishing the pages of what he said was a long-awaited agreement. The rollout was anything but smooth, however, as Trump dropped the papers and at first said his administration had reached an agreement with the European Union when he meant the United Kingdom.

The president nonetheless insisted the pact is “a fair deal for both” and would “produce a lot of jobs, a lot of income.”

“We just signed it,” Trump said, “and it’s done.”

Starmer said it meant “a very good day for both our countries, a real sign of strength.”

Reaching an agreement is significant as Trump has threatened much of the world with steep import tariffs that have unsettled markets and raised the possibility of a global trade war.

He has since backed off on many of his proposed levies but also continued to suggest that administration officials were furiously negotiating new trade pacts with dozens of countries — even as few have actually materialized.

Trump said “the U.K. is very well protected,” from tariffs. “You know why? Because I like them.”

The signing of the deal at the G7 followed Trump and Starmer’s announcement in May that they’d reached a framework for a trade pact that would slash U.S. import taxes on British cars, steel and aluminum in return for greater access to the British market for U.S. products, including beef and ethanol.

But Monday’s agreement fully covers only British cars and aerospace materials, with more work to come on steel.

The British government said the new agreement removes U.S. tariffs on U.K. aerospace products, exempting Britain from a 10% levy the Trump White House has sought to impose on all other countries — a boost to British firms, including engine-maker Rolls-Royce.

It also sets the tax on British autos at 10% from the end of the month, down from the current 27.5%, up to a quota of 100,000 vehicles a year.

U.K. Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said the deal protects “jobs and livelihoods in some of our most vital sectors.” Mike Hawes, chief executive of Britain’s Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, said it was “great news for the U.K. automotive industry.”

But there was no final agreement to cut the tax on British steel to zero as originally foreseen — seen as vital to preserving the U.K.'s beleaguered steel industry. Britain’s steel output has fallen 80% since the late 1960s due to high costs and the rapid growth of cheaper Chinese production.

Monday’s agreement fleshes out the terms of the framework deal announced in May. That framework didn’t immediately take effect, leaving British businesses uncertain about whether the U.K. could be exposed to any surprise hikes from Trump.

British businesses, and the U.K. government, were then blindsided earlier this month when Trump doubled metals tariffs on countries around the world to 50%. He later clarified the level would remain at 25% for the U.K.

After the two leaders spoke, the White House released a statement seeking to clarify matters, saying that with respect to steel and aluminum, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick will “determine a quota of products that can enter the United States without being subject” to previous tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

Financial markets welcomed a U.S. court ruling that blocks President Donald Trump from imposing sweeping tariffs on imports under an emergency-powers law.

U.S. futures jumped early Thursday and oil prices rose more than $1. The U.S. dollar rose against the yen and euro.

The court found the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which Trump has cited as his basis for ordering massive increases in import duties, does not authorize the use of tariffs.

The White House immediately appealed and it was unclear if Trump would abide by the ruling in the interim. The long term outcome of legal disputes over tariffs remains uncertain. But investors appeared to take heart after the months of turmoil brought on by Trump's trade war.

The future for the S&P 500 was up 1.5% while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2%.

In early European trading, Germany's DAX gained 0.5% to 24,160.75. The CAC 40 in Paris jumped 0.9% to 7,860.67. Britain's FTSE was nearly unchanged at 8,722.63.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index jumped 1.9% to 38,432.98. American's largest ally in Asia has been appealing to Trump to cancel the tariffs he has ordered on imports from Japan and to also stop 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos.
A U.S. Customs and Border Protection technician examines overseas parcels after they were scanned at the agency's overseas mail inspection facility at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport on Feb. 23, 2024.

The ruling also pushed the dollar sharply higher against the Japanese yen. It was trading at 145.40 yen early Thursday, up from 144.87 yen late Wednesday.

A three-judge panel ruled on several lawsuits arguing Trump exceeded his authority, casting doubt on trade policies that have jolted global financial markets, frustrated trade partners and raised uncertainty over the outlook for inflation and the global economy.

Many of Trump's double-digit tariff hikes are paused for up to 90 days to allow time for trade negotiations, but the uncertainty they cast over global commerce has stymied businesses and left consumers wary about what lies ahead.

"Just when traders thought they'd seen every twist in the tariff saga, the gavel dropped like a lightning bolt over the Pacific," Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary.

The ruling was, at the least, "a brief respite before the next thunderclap," he said.

Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.3% to 23,561.86, while the Shanghai Composite index gained 0.7% to 3,363.45.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.2% to 8,409.80.

In South Korea, which like Japan relies heavily on exports to the U.S., the Kospi surged 1.9% to 2,720.64. Shares also were helped by the Bank of Korea's decision to cut its key interest rate to 2.5% from 2.75%, to ease pressure on the economy.
Taiwan's Taiex edged 0.1% lower, and India's Sensex lost 0.2%.

On Wednesday, U.S. stocks cooled, with the S&P 500 down 0.6% but still within 4.2% of its record after charging higher amid hopes that the worst of the turmoil caused by Trump's trade war may have passed. It had been roughly 20% below the mark last month.

The Dow industrials lost 0.6% and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.5%.

Trading was relatively quiet ahead of a quarterly earnings release for Nvidia, which came after markets closed.

The bellwether for artificial intelligence overcame a wave of tariff-driven turbulence to deliver another quarter of robust growth thanks to feverish demand for its high-powered chips that are making computers seem more human. Nvidia's shares jumped 6.6% in afterhours trading.

Like Nvidia, Macy's stock also swung up and down through much of the day, even though it reported milder drops in revenue and profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. Its stock ended the day down 0.3%.

The bond market showed relatively little reaction after the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its latest meeting earlier this month, when it left its benchmark lending rate alone for the third straight time. The central bank has been holding off on cuts to interest rates, which would give the economy a boost, amid worries about inflation staying higher than hoped because of Trump's sweeping tariffs.

American businesses are cancelling orders from China, postponing expansion plans and hunkering down to see what trade policy surprises President Donald Trump plans to spring on them next.

The president’s massive and unpredictable taxes on imports seem likely to mean emptier shelves and higher prices for American shoppers, perhaps within weeks.

And the higher costs and paralyzing uncertainty could exact an economic toll: U.S. consumers are in the biggest funk since COVID-19 hit five years ago, and economists say recession risks are climbing.

An early sign of the damage emerged on Wednesday when the Commerce Department released its first look at first-quarter economic growth.

The U.S. economy shrank 0.3% from January through March, the first drop in three years. Gross domestic product — the nation’s output of goods and services — was down from 2.4% in the last three months of 2024. Imports shaved 5 percentage points off first-quarter growth. Consumer spending also slowed sharply.

Asked how much of deterioration in the world’s biggest economy could be traced to Trump’s erratic policies, Boston College economist Brian Bethune said: “All of it.’’

As he promised on the campaign trail, Trump has upended decades of American trade policy. He’s been imposing — then sometimes suspending — big import taxes, or tariffs, on a wide range of targets. He’s currently plastered a 10% levy on products from almost every country in the world. He’s hit China — America’s third-biggest trading partner and second-biggest source of imported goods – with a staggering 145% tariff.

China has responded with retaliatory tariffs of its own – 125% on American products. The take-no-prisoners trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has shaken global financial markets and threatened to bring U.S.-China trade to a standstill.

Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, warned last Thursday within two weeks arrivals to the port “will drop by 35% as essentially all shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers has ceased.’’ Seroka added that cargo from Southeast Asia also “is much softer than normal with tariffs now in place.’’

After Trump announced expansive tariffs in early April, ocean container bookings from China to the United States dropped 60% -- and stayed there, said Ryan Petersen, founder and CEO of Flexport, a San Francisco company that helps companies ship cargo around the world. With orders down, ocean carriers have reduced their capacity by cancelling 25% of their sailings, Flexport said.

Many companies tried to beat the clock by bringing in foreign goods before Trump’s tariffs took effect. In fact, that is a big reason that first-quarter economic growth is expected to come in so low: A surge in imports swelled the trade deficit, which weighs on growth.

By stockpiling goods ahead of the trade war, many companies “will be positioned to ride out this storm for a while,’’ said Judah Levine, research director at the global freight-booking platform Freightos. “But at a certain point, inventories will run down.’’

In the next few weeks, Levine said, “you could start seeing shortages ... it’s likely to be concentrated in categories where the U.S. is heavily dependent on Chinese manufacturing and there aren’t a lot of alternatives and certainly quick alternatives.’’ Among them: furniture, baby products and plastic goods, including toys.

Jay Foreman, CEO of toymaker Basic Fun, said he paused shipments of Tonka trucks, Care Bears and other toys from China after Trump’s tariff plan was announced in early April. Now, he’s hoping to get by for a few months on inventory he’s stockpiled.

“Consumers will find Basic Fun toys in stores for a month or two but very quickly we will be out of stock and stock product will disappear from store shelves, ” he said.

Kevin Brusky, who owns APE Games, a small tabletop game publisher in St. Louis, has about 7,000 copies of three different games sitting in a warehouse in China. The tariff bill of about $25,000 would wipe out his profit on the games, so he is launching a Kickstarter campaign next week to help defray the cost of the duties.

The U.S. and global economies will likely slow significantly in the wake of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the uncertainty they have created, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.

The IMF said that the global economy will grow just 2.8% this year, down from its forecast in January of 3.3%, according to its latest World Economic Outlook. And in 2026, global growth will be 3%, the fund predicts, also below its previous 3.3% estimate.

And the Fund sees the world’s two largest economies, China and the United States, weakening: U.S. economic growth will come in at just 1.8% this year, down sharply from its previous forecast of 2.7% and a full percentage point below its 2024 expansion. The IMF doesn’t expect a U.S. recession, though it has raised its odds of one this year from 25% to about 40%.

China is now projected to expand 4% this year and next, down roughly half a point from its previous forecasts. “We are entering a new era,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the IMF, said. “This global economic system that has operated for the last eighty years is being reset.”

The forecasts underscore the widespread impact of both the tariffs and the uncertainty they have created. Every country in the world is affected, the IMF said, by hikes in US import taxes that have now lifted average U.S. duties to about 25%, the highest in a century.

The forecasts are largely in line with many private-sector economists’ expectations, though some do fear a recession is increasingly likely. Economists at JPMorgan say the chances of a U.S. recession are now 60%. The Federal Reserve has also forecast that growth will weaken this year, to 1.7%.

The IMF is a 191-nation lending organization that works to promote economic growth and financial stability and to reduce global poverty.

Gourinchas said that the heightened uncertainty around the import taxes led the IMF to take the unusual step of preparing several different scenarios for future growth. Its forecasts were finalized April 4, after the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs on nearly 60 countries along with nearly-universal 10% duties.

Those duties were paused April 9 for 90 days. Gourinchas said the pause didn’t substantially change the IMF’s forecasts because the U.S. and China have imposed such steep tariffs on each other since then.

The Trump administration has slapped duties on cars, steel, and aluminum, as well as 25% import taxes on most goods from Canada and Mexico. The White House has also imposed 10% tariffs on nearly all imports, and a huge 145% duty on goods from China, though smartphone and computers have been exempted. China has retaliated with 125% duties on US goods.

President Donald Trump said Thursday he is in “no rush” to reach any trade deals because he views tariffs as making the United States wealthy. But he suggested while meeting with Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni that it would be easy to find an agreement with the European Union and others.

Trump played down the likelihood of an accelerated timeline to wrap up deals, saying other countries “want to make deals more than I do.”

“We’re in no rush,” said Trump, hinting he has leverage because other countries want access to U.S. consumers.

Even though Trump has a warm relationship with Meloni, she was unable in their meeting to change his mind on tariffs.

“No, tariffs are making us rich. We were losing a lot of money under Biden,” Trump said of his predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden. “And now that whole tide is turned.”

Trump is convinced that his devotion to tariffs will yield unprecedented wealth for his country even as the stock market has dropped, interest on U.S. debt has risen and CEOs are warning of price increases and job losses in what increasingly looks like a threat to the existing structure of the world economy.

A bond market panic was enough for Trump to partially pull back on his tariffs, causing him to pause his 20% import taxes on the EU for 90 days and charge a baseline 10% instead. Meloni’s visit showed the challenge faced even by leaders who enjoy a rapport with Trump.

After they met, Trump told reporters that trade talks were easier than other business negotiations such as mergers. He said he had spoken with Chinese officials about tariffs “a lot” and the amount of his import taxes could be influenced by China approving a sale of the social media site TikTok. He also seemed to contradict his previous statement Thursday morning about being in no rush to make trade deals “over the next three or four weeks.”

Even then, Trump showed no interest in fully severing his tariffs. “Tariff negotiations are actually simpler than everyone has said,” Trump said. “A number of people are going to pay that number or they’re going to decide to go elsewhere if there is such a place. There really is no elsewhere.”

Meloni had, in a sense, been “knighted” to represent the EU at a critical juncture in the fast-evolving trade war that has stoked recession fears. The U.S. administration has belittled its European counterparts for not doing enough on national security while threatening their economies with tariffs, sparking deep uncertainty about the future of the trans-Atlantic alliance.

She sought to portray the U.S. and Europe as natural allies in Western civilization and said it was important to “try to sit down and find solution” to tensions over trade and national security.

The EU is defending what it calls “the most important commercial relationship in the world,’’ with annual trade with the U.S. totaling 1.6 trillion euros ($1.8 trillion). It was unclear, based on Meloni’s public interactions with Trump, whether the premier has a clear understanding of what Trump wants as part of an agreement.

His administration has said its tariffs would enable trade negotiations that would box out China, the world’s dominant manufacturer. But Trump maintains that rivals and allies alike have taken advantage of the U.S. on trade, a position that has frustrated long-standing partners and raised concerns about whether Trump is a trustworthy dealmaker.

Trump tried to push back against claims that his tariffs are harming the economy, saying that gasoline and egg prices are already dropping. The president blamed the Federal Reserve for interest rates rising on U.S. debt. Rates largely increased because investors were worried about Trump’s tariff plans and they became less willing to buy Treasury notes, while the central bank has held steady on its own benchmark rates because of economic uncertainty.

China is reaching out to other nations as the U.S. layers on more tariffs in what appears to be an attempt to form a united front to compel Washington to retreat. Days into the effort, it’s meeting only partial success with many countries unwilling to ally with the main target of President Donald Trump’s trade war.

Facing the cratering of global markets, Trump on Wednesday backed off his tariffs on most nations for 90 days, saying countries were lining up to negotiate more favorable conditions.

China has refused to seek talks, saying it would “fight to the end” in a tariff war, prompting Trump to further jack up the tax rate on Chinese imports to 125%. China has retaliated with tariffs on U.S. goods of 84%, which took effect Thursday.

Trump’s move was seemingly an attempt to narrow what had been an unprecedented trade war between the U.S. and most of the world to a showdown between the U.S. and China.

“A just cause receives support from many,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said at a daily briefing on Thursday. “The U.S. cannot win the support of the people and will end in failure.”

China has thus far focused on Europe, with a phone call between Premier Li Qiang and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen “sending a positive message to the outside world.”

“China is willing to work with the EU to jointly implement the important consensus reached by the leaders of China and the EU, strengthen communication and exchanges, and deepen China-EU trade, investment and industrial cooperation,” the official Xinhua News Agency reported.

That was followed by a video conference between Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Šefčović on Tuesday to discuss the U.S. “reciprocal tariffs.”

Wang said the tariffs “seriously infringe upon the legitimate interests of all countries, seriously violate WTO rules, seriously damage the rules-based multilateral trading system, and seriously impact the stability of the global economic order,” Xinhua said.

“It is a typical act of unilateralism, protectionism and economic bullying,” Wang said quoted as saying. “China is willing to resolve differences through consultation and negotiation, but if the U.S. insists on its own way, China will fight to the end,” Wang said.

Wang has also spoken with the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, while Li, the premier, has met with business leaders. China has “already made a full evaluation and is prepared to deal with all kinds of uncertainties, and will introduce incremental policies according to the needs of the situation,” Xinhua quoted Li as saying.

In Hong Kong, the spokesperson for the local office of China’s Foreign Ministry reiterated Beijing’s unwillingness to negotiate with the U.S. under current conditions.

“We must solemnly tell the U.S.: a tariff-wielding barbarian who attempts to force countries to call and beg for mercy can never expect that call from China,” Huang Jingrui wrote in an op-ed appearing in the South China Morning Post.

If the U.S. is truly sincere about starting a dialogue with China, it should “immediately rectify its wrong practices and adopt the right attitude of equality, respect and mutual benefit,” Huang wrote.

Despite their unhappiness with Washington, not all countries are interested in linking up with China, especially those with a history of disputes with Beijing.

“We speak for ourselves, and Australia’s position is that free and fair trade is a good thing,” Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told reporters. “We engage with all countries, but we stand up for Australia’s national interest and we stand on our own two feet.”

China imposed a series of official and unofficial trade barriers against Australia in 2020 after the government angered Beijing by calling for an independent inquiry into the COVID-19 pandemic.

India has also reportedly turned down a Chinese call for cooperation, and Russia, typically seen as China’s closest geopolitical partner, has been left out of the Trump tariffs altogether. Taiwanese Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung said on Wednesday that his government is preparing for talks on tariffs with the U.S.

The U.S. imposed a 32% tariff on imports from Taiwan, a close trading and security partner. Taiwan produces most of the high-performing computer chips craved by the U.S. and others and has long enjoyed a trade surplus with Washington.

Yet, Southeast Asian nations such as Vietnam and Cambodia find themselves in a particular bind. They benefited when factories moved to their countries from China due to rising costs. They are being hit by punishing tariffs but have few buyers outside the U.S. and are already operating on razor-thin margins.

Trump had previously denied contemplating a pause, but the drama over his tariffs will continue as the administration prepares to engage in country-by-country negotiations. Meanwhile, tariffs will be 10% for the countries where the larger ones were paused.

China said Tuesday it would “fight to the end” and take countermeasures against the United States to safeguard its own interests after President Donald Trump threatened an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports.

The Commerce Ministry said the U.S.‘s imposition of “so-called ‘reciprocal tariffs’” on China is “completely groundless and is a typical unilateral bullying practice.”

China, the world’s second-largest economy, has announced retaliatory tariffs and the ministry hinted in its latest statement that more may be coming.

“The countermeasures China has taken are aimed at safeguarding its sovereignty, security and development interests, and maintaining the normal international trade order. They are completely legitimate,” the ministry said.

“The U.S. threat to escalate tariffs on China is a mistake on top of a mistake and once again exposes the blackmailing nature of the U.S. China will never accept this. If the U.S. insists on its own way, China will fight to the end,” it added.

Trump’s threat Monday of additional tariffs on China raised fresh concerns that his drive to rebalance the global economy could intensify a financially destructive trade war. Stock markets from Tokyo to New York have become more unstable as the tariff war worsens.

Trump’s threat came after China said it would retaliate against U.S. tariffs he announced last week.

“If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated!”

If Trump implements his new tariffs on Chinese products, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods would reach a combined 104%. The new taxes would be on top of the 20% tariffs announced as punishment for fentanyl trafficking and his separate 34% tariffs announced last week. Not only could that increase prices for American consumers, it could also give China an incentive to flood other countries with cheaper goods and seek deeper relationships with other trading partners, particularly the European Union.

On the streets of Beijing, people said they found it hard to keep track of all the announcements, but expressed belief in their country’s ability to weather the storm.

“Trump says one thing today and another tomorrow. Anyway, he just wants benefits, so he can say whatever he wants,” said Wu Qi, 37, who works in construction.

Others were less sanguine. Paul Wang, 30, who sells stainless accessories, including necklaces, bracelets, and tongue studs to Europe, said the European market was now more important after the extra U.S. 50% tariffs and he would be watching to see which other firms in his field would be competing in that space.

Jessi Huang and Yang Aijia, whose companies import chemicals from the U.S., said the tariffs, including potential Chinese retribution, could force them to close up shop. China still has a range of options to strike back at the Washington, experts said, including suspending cooperation on combating fentanyl, placing higher quotas on agricultural products and going after the U.S. trade in services in China such as finance and law firms.

U.S. total goods trade with China was an estimated $582 billion in 2024, making it the top trader in goods with the U.S. The 2024 deficit with China in goods and services trade was between $263 billion and $295 billion.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian appeared to give short shrift to talk of dialogue with the Trump administration.